Mounting evidence links health deterioration to climate crisis
The health of billions of people worldwide faces unprecedented threats from accelerating climate change, according to new findings from the 2024 Lancet Countdown Report. The analysis reveals record-breaking levels of heat-related deaths, rising infectious disease transmission, and severe economic losses, while governments continue to invest heavily in fossil fuels rather than redirecting funds towards protecting public health and promoting clean energy alternatives.
The 2024 Lancet Countdown Report on Health and Climate Change [1] has unveiled disturbing findings about the escalating impact of climate change on global health, with ten out of fifteen health threat indicators reaching unprecedented levels. The comprehensive analysis, involving 122 experts from 57 academic institutions and UN agencies, including the World Health Organisation and World Meteorological Organisation, presents compelling evidence of the direct correlation between climate change and deteriorating health outcomes worldwide.
The report, published ahead of COP29 (held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024), documents that 2023 witnessed the highest recorded temperatures, resulting in a significant surge in heat-related mortality. Deaths associated with heat exposure among individuals over 65 increased by 167% compared to the 1990s, substantially exceeding the anticipated 65% increase that would have occurred solely due to demographic changes. This disproportionate impact particularly affects nations with lower human development indices, highlighting the intersection of climate vulnerability and social inequity.
Quantifying climate impact on daily activities
The data reveals concerning statistics about the impact on daily activities, with people globally experiencing an unprecedented average of 1,512 hours of temperatures that posed at least a moderate risk of heat stress during light outdoor activities such as walking. This represents a 27.7% increase from the 1990-1999 yearly average, adding 328 more hours of potential heat exposure.
The economic implications have been equally severe. The report estimates that 512 billion potential labour hours were lost globally in 2023, marking a 49% increase from the 1990-1999 average. These losses translated to approximately US$835 billion in potential income losses, significantly affecting low and middle-income countries, where the impact reached 7.6% and 4.4% of GDP, respectively.
The analysis also reveals that 61% of global land area experienced an increase in extreme precipitation events during the past decade compared to the 19611990 average. These events have heightened the risks of flooding, infectious disease spread, and water contamination. The total yearly economic losses from extreme weather events between 2019-2023 reached US$227 billion, exceeding the GDP of 60% of the world’s economies.
Disease transmission patterns shift with climate change
The changing climate has created more favourable conditions for the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. The past decade (2014-2023) saw a 46% increase in transmission risk for dengue fever via Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and an 11% increase via Aedes aegypti compared to 1951-1960 levels. This culminated in over 5 million dengue cases reported across more than 80 countries and territories in 2023, marking an all-time high.
Dr Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London, emphasised the gravity of the situation: “This year’s stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring. Once again, last year broke climate change records – with extreme heat waves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world.”
Financial priorities misaligned with health needs
Despite mounting evidence of health impacts, the report highlights a concerning trend in global financial priorities. In 2023, fossil fuel investments claimed 36.6% of global energy investment, while governments increased fossil fuel subsidies in response to energy price surges following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, 84% of analysed countries (72 out of 86) subsidised fossil fuels, reaching a record total of US$1.4 trillion.
The disparity between fossil fuel subsidies and health spending is particularly striking, with subsidies exceeding 10% of national health spending in 47 countries and surpassing 100% in 23 countries. Meanwhile, the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27 received initial pledges of just US$700 million, less than 0.2% of the estimated annual requirement.
The report reveals that the world’s 114 largest oil and gas companies have increased their projected fossil fuel production levels, with emissions expected to exceed 1.5°C-compatible levels by 59% in 2030 and 189% in 2040. More alarmingly, 33 of these companies are projected to exceed their 1.5°C-compatible emissions by over 300% in 2040.
Environmental degradation compounds health risks
The report presents new data showing that approximately 182 million hectares of forest were destroyed between 2016 and 2022, equivalent to 5% of global tree cover. Russia experienced the most significant losses at 35.8 million hectares, followed by the USA and Canada with nearly 15 million hectares each. This deforestation has severely impacted the Earth’s natural carbon dioxide capture capacity.
Furthermore, increasing red meat and dairy consumption contributed to 220,000 additional diet-related deaths between 2016 and 2021, while simultaneously driving a 2.9% rise in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.
Prof Stella Hartinger, co-author and Lancet Countdown Latin America Director at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, notes: “Oil and gas companies – supported by many governments and the global financial system – continue to reinforce the world’s addiction to fossil fuels. In a world in which survival depends on phasing out fossil fuels, these short-sighted investments set us up for financial turmoil as we pursue a liveable future.”
Signs of progress emerge amid challenges
Despite the overwhelmingly negative trends, some positive developments have emerged. Deaths from fossil fuel-derived air pollution decreased by nearly 7% from 2.25 million in 2016 to 2.09 million in 2021, with 59% of this reduction attributed to coal pollution reduction efforts. Additionally, clean modern renewables now account for 10.5% of electricity generation, almost double the 2016 figure of 5.5%.
This year’s stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring. Once again, last year broke climate change records – with extreme heat waves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world.
The renewable energy sector has shown promising growth, with global investment increasing by 10% in 2023 to US$1.9 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 73%. Employment in renewables reached a record 13.7 million workers in 2022, representing a 35.6% increase since 2016.
Prof Anthony Costello, Co-Chair of the Lancet Countdown, emphasises the need for systemic change: “Progress towards an equitable and healthy future requires a global transformation of financial systems, shifting resources away from the fossil-fuel based economy towards a zero-emissions future.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres responded to the report’s findings, stating: “Record-high emissions are posing record-breaking threats to our health. We must cure the sickness of climate inaction – by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction – to create a fairer, safer, and healthier future for all.”
The report concludes that growing engagement from individuals, corporations, scientists, and international organisations with climate change and health issues offers hope for positive change, particularly as the health community’s leadership could be instrumental in reversing concerning trends and promoting health-centred climate policies at the COP29.
Reference:
- The 2024 Lancet Countdown Report on Health and Climate Change. https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate
