A strategic investment in climate-resilient healthcare solutions could avert 6.5 million deaths and prevent $5.8 trillion in economic losses by 2050
Climate change is rapidly emerging as the most significant public health crisis of our generation, with impacts far exceeding those of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to new research from the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, climate-related events are projected to cause an additional 14.5 million deaths and cost the global economy $12.5 trillion by 2050. However, a coordinated strategic investment of $65 billion in prevention, diagnostics and treatment could potentially halve these devastating impacts.
The growing health emergency
The climate-health crisis is already unfolding before us. Drought in eastern Africa has affected more than 10 million people, while hurricanes in the southern United States have left hundreds dead and thousands homeless. Vector-borne diseases like dengue fever are appearing in unprecedented numbers beyond their usual geographic range, with cases now documented in Europe and North America.
Professor Shyam Bishen, Head of the Centre for Health and Healthcare at the World Economic Forum, emphasises the urgency: “Climate change is a health emergency. We are on track for a world that is more than 2°C warmer than today, resulting in increased frequency of climate events and longer-term changes such as saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels.”
These climate-driven health impacts will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable. The Forum’s research indicates mortality rates in Africa will be more than 20 times greater than in North and Central America and almost 14 times worse than in Europe. Asia is similarly disproportionately affected, with projected mortality rates more than 13 times worse than North and Central America.
Vector-borne diseases: Expanding threats
The relationship between climate change and vector-borne diseases is particularly alarming.
Higher temperatures and altered precipitation patterns extend mosquito breeding seasons and geographic range, creating ideal conditions for disease transmission.
Malaria alone is projected to cost an additional $1 trillion and add 409 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2050 due to climate change. In central Africa, malaria is expected to cost healthcare systems around $345 billion and add 151 million DALYs by mid-century. Even more economically developed regions are not immune – the United States recorded cases of domestic malaria transmission in 2023 for the first time in 20 years.
Dengue fever presents a similar threat. Asia will bear the heaviest burden, with 66,000 dengue-related deaths, 5.8 million DALYs, and healthcare costs soaring to $105 billion by 2050. Africa faces 28,000 deaths, 2.1 million DALYs, and economic costs of $13 billion in the same timeframe.
Mental health: The hidden impact
Climate events also pose significant mental health challenges. Acute disasters such as floods and storms expose individuals to traumatic experiences that can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including loss of family members, homes, and livelihoods.
In South-East Asia, where floods are frequent and severe, these events are expected to cause $147 billion in PTSD-related healthcare expenses and 41 million DALYs by 2050. Globally, PTSD from climate events is projected to cost $397 billion and cause 85 million DALYs.
Generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) often develops in response to prolonged stress and uncertainty from climate events. The global impact is expected to reach $1.5 trillion and 378 million DALYs by 2050. In the western United States, GAD linked to wildfires is estimated to cost $709 billion, with 36 million DALYs.
Child health and nutrition under threat
Stunting in children, already a significant global health challenge affecting millions under five in less economically developed countries, will be further exacerbated by climate change as rising temperatures threaten food availability. By 2050, the global cost of stunted development is projected to be $1.8 trillion, impacting 887 million DALYs.
Regional disparities are stark. In the Mediterranean region, stunting is expected to lead to economic losses of $700 billion and affect 16 million DALYs. In West Africa and Southern Africa, it is projected to incur losses of $231 billion, affecting 727 million DALYs.
A strategic response: The $65 billion solution
The report identifies a pathway to avert nearly half of these projected health and economic impacts through strategic investments in vaccines, medicines, medical devices, health technology and climate services.
“Our research demonstrates that a well-directed investment of $65 billion over the next five to eight years could significantly reduce the projected health and economic burden of climate change,” explains Terry Stone, Global Leader of Health and Life Sciences at Oliver Wyman. “This amounts to less than 5% of normal annual R&D spending by the pharmaceutical industry.”
These investments could potentially save 6.5 million lives, reduce global economic losses by $5.8 trillion, and prevent one billion disability-adjusted life years by 2050. The return on investment is compelling – up to four times in terms of avoided healthcare costs and up to 90 times in terms of total economic loss avoidance.
The report identifies 36 priority investments across prevention, diagnostics and treatment for eight climate-aggravated medical conditions: vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue), mental health disorders (generalised anxiety disorder and PTSD), stunting, heat-related illnesses, hypertension and asthma.
For malaria, investments in adult vaccines, more effective paediatric vaccines, and treatments for multi-drug-resistant strains could prevent 44% of the projected health and economic burdens – saving 180 million DALYs, preventing $450 billion in economic losses, and averting 3.59 million deaths.
Similar potential exists for other conditions. Interventions targeting dengue fever could reduce global impact by 63%; mental health interventions could prevent 60% of PTSD and 58% of GAD impacts; and measures addressing stunting could mitigate outcomes by 45%, preventing 1.3 million deaths and saving over $753 billion in economic losses.
Overcoming investment barriers
Despite the clear return on investment, several roadblocks currently hinder development of new climate and health solutions. These include uncertain market demand, unpredictable regulation, complexity of climate-health data integration, limited cross-sector collaboration, and low public awareness.
Creating innovative funding mechanisms and harmonised global regulatory frameworks is essential. The success of the Orphan Drug Act in the United States provides a relevant example – this legislation transformed an unattractive investment area into a major growth sector through targeted incentives.
The climate crisis will demand global coordination on an even greater scale than was needed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive outcomes from the accelerated COVID-19 vaccine development demonstrate how regulators and industry can work together to reduce bureaucracy and expedite critical healthcare solutions.
Building resilient healthcare systems
As climate change introduces novel vulnerabilities to health systems, a comprehensive resilience framework is needed that encompasses both resistance (mitigation and adaptation) and recovery (first response and treatment).
Climate-resilient infrastructure – such as hospitals with heat regulation systems and storm-resistant designs – will be crucial. One in 12 hospitals worldwide may be forced to close due to extreme weather events by the end of the century.
Critically, addressing health equity issues is a prerequisite for successful delivery of climate-health interventions. The report emphasises that solutions must be tailored to local settings, with particular attention to vulnerable populations in less economically developed regions.
The path forward
The climate-health crisis represents both an unprecedented challenge and a transformative opportunity for the medical community. By mobilising strategic investments and fostering cross-sector collaboration, we have the potential to build more resilient, equitable healthcare systems while saving millions of lives.
Dr Fabrizio Tediosi of the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, who contributed to the report, concludes: “The evidence is clear – climate change is the defining health threat of our century. But with coordinated action across life sciences, healthcare, government and civil society, we can substantially reduce its impact. The window for preventive action is narrowing, but it remains open.”
The stark message from this research is that healthcare professionals must become advocates for climate action as a public health imperative. The health of future generations depends on the investments and policies we implement today.
- This feature is based on the World Economic Forum’s January 2025 white paper “Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions,” produced in collaboration with Oliver Wyman.
https://www.weforum.org/publications/healthcare-in-a-changing-climate-investing-in-resilient-solutions/
